Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO) - January 2, 2024

DAILY STOCK REPORT: NUTRIEN (NTR.TO)

At SIA Charts, we compare head-to-head battles of thousands of stocks, commodities, mutual funds and exchange traded funds daily and rank them by who is winning the most in their respective universes. The top 25% are considered the Green Favored Zone, 26-50% make up the Yellow Neutral Zone and the bottom half of each league table is considered the Red Unfavored Zone.

SIA Charts relative strength rankings help investors to manage risk by identifying and avoiding stocks which are struggling relative to their peers. One example of this is fertilizer producer Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO). Nutrien spent all of 2023 in the Red Unfavored Zone of the SIA S&P/TSX 60 Index Report, including several months at or very close to rock bottom, finishing the year in second last place. Since dropping out of the green zone back in November of 2022, NTR.TO has declined by 23.7%, compared with an 8.9% gain for the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the same time frame.

Candlestick Chart Bounces Off Support:

This chart, which dates back to the March 2020 market bottom, highlights the rise and fall of Nutrien (NTR.TO) shares over the last several years. Two years of accumulation came to an end in April of 2022, and since then, NTR.TO has been under distribution, steadily declining in a Falling Channel of lower highs and lower lows.

The shares seem to have stabilized between $70.00 and $90.00 in recent months but it’s unclear whether this is a base forming or a pause within a larger downtrend. Last month’s retest of support and bounce up off of $70.00 on a big volume spike looks encouraging. Since then, the shares have not done much, still unable to get meaningfully back above $75.00 or its 10-week average. More upside resistance appears at the 40-week average near $81.00, and the current channel top near $90.00.

So far $70.00 support has been holding, but if that were to fail a measured move from the current trading range suggests next potential downside support after that may emerge closer to the $50.00 round number.

Point and Figure Chart Remains in a Downtrend:

Since peaking in April of 2022, Nutrien (NTR.TO) shares have been under distribution, steadily sliding in a downtrend characterized by lower highs. Even in the broad market rebound of the last two months, Nutrien has remained under pressure. Not only has Nutrien failed to participate in the recent market rally, but it has also completed two bearish Double Bottom breakdowns that have combined into a Bearish Catapult.

Potential downside support tests on trend appear at previous lows near $69.45, $66.75, $60.45 and $53.65. Initial resistance appears near $78.20 based on a 3-box reversal.

With a bearish SMAX score (which is a near-term 1 to 90-day indicator comparing an asset against different equal-weight asset classes) of 0 out of 10, NTR.TO is exhibiting short-term weakness across the asset classes.