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FedEx Corp. (FDX) - January 5, 2024


At SIACharts, we compare head-to-head battles of thousands of stocks, commodities, mutual funds and exchange traded funds daily and rank them by who is winning the most in their respective universes. The top 25% are considered the Green Favored Zone, 26-50% make up the Yellow Neutral Zone and the bottom half of each league table is considered the Red Unfavored Zone.

The rise and fall of FedEx (FDX) in the relative strength rankings of the SIA S&P 100 Index Report over the past year has been something to see. Starting in the red zone, FDX steadily climbed up into the green zone over the first eight months of the year.

Since the summer, FDX has been steadily sinking back down the rankings. It fell out of the green zone back in October, but its underperformance has really accelerated in the last two weeks since the company reported disappointing earnings just before the holidays.

Yesterday, FedEx returned to the Red Unfavored Zone for the first time in nearly a year, after dropping 24 positions in the last month to 54th place.

Candlestick Chart Highlights the Big Post-Earnings Reversal:

FedEx (FDX) shares had been looking good technically heading into their recent earnings report.

The shares had been steadily trending upward for over a year and had recently broken out over $70.00 signaling the start of a new upleg following a pause.

Two weeks ago, however, accumulation came to a screeching halt and tipped back the other way as the shares staged a big bearish reversal, selling off on a big spike in volume. This signaled that bears had gained the upper hand. That situation has continued with the shares unable to regain their 10-week moving average, sliding back under the $250.00 round number.

A close below $240.00 would snap an uptrend line and confirm the start of a new downtrend with next potential support at the October low near $225.00. Initial resistance appears at the 10-week average near $255.00, then the top of the previous range near $270.00.

Point and Figure Chart Sends a Warning Signal:

For a year following the October 2022 bear market bottom, FedEx shares were under steady accumulation. Over the last two months, however, volatility has increased and a battle between bulls and bears for the upper hand has commenced. Resistance started to emerge in October with the first failed breakout attempt since August of 2022. The shares then staged a bearish double bottom breakdown but the bulls fought back and the shares staged a bullish triple top breakout.

Last month, the shares ran into resistance at a pervious peak near $285.95, and since then, they have been giving back their previous gains, enough to trigger a bearish High Pole Warning. Initial downside support appears at the November low near $225.45. A breakdown there would complete a pending bearish double bottom pattern and signal the start of a new downleg with next potential support near $208.30 based on previous column highs and lows. Initial resistance on a bounce appears near $269.50 based on a 3-box reversal.

With a bearish SMAX score (which is a near-term 1 to 90-day indicator comparing an asset against different equal-weight asset classes) of 4 out of 10, FDX is exhibiting short-term weakness against the asset classes.

Disclaimer: SIACharts Inc. specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investors investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIACharts Inc. nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.

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