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Nvidia Corp. - (NVDA) - May 7, 2024

SIA Charts’ relative strength rankings help investors identify opportunities in stocks which are outperforming their peers or index benchmarks on a relative basis. Outperformance often reflects improving investor expectations for strong company or sector growth. Benefiting from increased semiconductor demand to support artificial intelligence (AI) development, Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) has consistently been in the Green Favored Zone of the SIA S&P 100 Index Report since January of 2023. Yesterday, NVDA climbed 9 spots to 5th place.

Over the last year, NVDA has returned 221.4%, including a year to date gain of 35.1%. In April, NVDA shares staged a correction but remained in the Green Favored Zone and have bounced back this month. Over the last month NVDA is up 4.71%, outperforming the 0.25% gain made by the S&P 100 Index over the same time period.

Considering how far NVDA* shares have climbed since the start of 2024, it’s interesting to look back and see how the shares spent the second half of last year trading back and forth in a $400-$500 range, particularly since’ it’s unclear if the shares have entered into a new consolidation phase or if they are preparing for a big breakout or breakdown.

Back in March, the shares’ advance stalled short of $975 resistance, with more possible near the $1,000 big round number. From there, the shares started to trend downward, falling back toward $750 before finally finding support.

In recent weeks the shares have bounced back, snapping a downtrend line and regaining their 50-day average and the $900 level. Yesterday’s breakout completed a bullish Ascending Triangle pattern that suggests potential measured resistance near $1,050.

The only technical concern at the moment is that the breakout was not accompanied by a volume spike and that generally the recent rise in the shares has been on falling volumes. If the shares can break out over $975 and then $1,000 it could suggest a new up leg is starting. If the shares falter near or short of those levels it would suggest that the shares may be moving into a sideways range with initial support at the 50-day average near $867.

* Shares of Nvidia are held in portfolios managed by SIA Wealth Management.

Coming off of a big two stage rally to start the year, in April Nvidia* (NVDA) staged its largest correction since January of 2023 (circled), or 10 rows which triggered a bearish double bottom pattern that extended into a low pole.

This month, NVDA has bounced back up off of another higher low, enough to trigger a bullish Low Pole Warning. The shares are now back up above $900 and approaching a retest of their April high.

A close above $953.10 would complete a pending double top pattern and signal the start of a new upleg that could test initial resistance in the $1,000 to $1,030 range which is between a big round number and a vertical count. Should that fail for now, initial support may appear near $846.30 based on a 3-box reversal.

With its bullish SMAX score (which is a near-term 1 to 90-day indicator comparing an asset against different equal-weight asset classes) increasing to 9 out of 10, NVDA is exhibiting short-term strength against the asset classes.

* Shares of Nvidia are held in portfolios managed by SIA Wealth Management.

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