Market Overview: Steady Performance Despite Early Volatility

Markets have been generally steady this week, especially considering it began with news that President Trump had imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which were later delayed for a month. As the markets digested this news, SIA went to work, sifting through the large data set in a comparative way. As the dust settles on the week, we are keen to identify the relative strength gains, as they may provide insights into sectors of opportunity. The big gainer of the week was the metal futures sector, where Gold, Silver, Palladium, and Platinum were up 3.56%, 5.04%, 4.47%, and 4.96%, respectively. In the Energy arena, Natural Gas continued its surge, gaining another 5.99%, while Crude Oil slipped by -2.19%. Currencies were very volatile: the US Dollar initially gained on the tariffs news but later retreated. In the end, the Canadian Dollar gained 0.72% against the US Dollar, while the Australian Dollar rose 0.85%. The Japanese Yen rallied the most, with a 3.13% gain. As we sneak into the back end of the week, the indexes are generally flat, with the S&P 500 up 0.37%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 0.31%. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was up similarly, by 0.38%.

Having now completed a month of trading in 2025, we can look back relative to the sectors to find potential opportunities. This time, instead of just looking at the top relative sector performers, we present the data in the first table, which shows the top gainers from the SIA Market Sector Report. Here, we find some interesting movers: the SIA Energy Equal Weight Index moved up 7 positions within the matrix, while the SIA Health Services Equal Weight Index rose 5 positions. Behind these, we see the SIA Consumer Non-Durables EWI and the SIA Diversified Services EWI both up 4 positions.Putting this into context, we must point out that these sectors are still residing within the SIA Unfavored zones of the report and remain deeply unfavored as a group. However, there may be pockets of strength driving these relative moves to the upside, making them worth a closer look to understand what is driving these sectors of potential opportunity. We will dive deeper into the SIA Energy EWI sector in a moment. Before that, let’s quickly look at the bottom of the table to examine the SIA Relative Strength Decliners for the month. Here we find some usual suspects in SIA Automotive and SIA Tobacco EWI. However, the other two sectors—SIA Electronics and Semiconductors EWI and SIA Computer Hardware EWI—were exciting in 2024 but have turned decidedly negative for 2025. The SIA Computer Hardware EWI declined 9 positions in the past month and has moved into the SIA Neutral zone, which may prompt advisors to review their positions, as risk parameters appear to be changing.

Given the relative strength gains of the SIA Energy EWI over the past month and into 2025, the next table shows the entire list of names that make up the SIA Energy Equal Weight Index. We find an interesting collection of names, especially those at the top of the matrix report. At the top, we find Targa Resources Inc. (TRGP) with a 10.22% monthly gain, along with other names that we have highlighted in recent daily stock reports like EQT Corp. (EQT) in spot #4, TechnipFMC PLC (FTI) in position #7, Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) in #9, and Baker Hughes Company (BKR) in position #14. For complete technical reviews of these positions, please refer back to their corresponding Daily Stock Report under the SIA platform's Asset Allocation tab.Today, we also find other interesting infrastructure names like DT Midstream in position #2, Energy Transfer LP (ET) in third position, and Antero Resources (AR) in #5. Position #8 is held by MPLX LP, a fund that holds most of the names in the favored zone of this Energy Report, which may be a simple and easy way for SIA practitioners to gain exposure to the sector. While we could continue down this list, we will leave the rest as homework. Visually, the entire list is showing stronger SMAX scores that have been observed for some time now, and we are witnessing large 1-month gains all the way down the list. Even some of the bottom positions have gained double digits, such as Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) up 10.21% and Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) up 14.03%.