The Energy sector has contributed to the S&P/TSX Composite Index’s recent strength, supported in part by rising crude oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions. Beyond its performance, several leading energy names also offer dividend yields that may appeal to income-oriented investors. This week’s Equity Leaders Weekly examines the sector’s recent returns, relative strength leadership, and income profile.
For the past several years, a handful of mega-cap technology companies have carried an outsized share of market performance. Today, relative strength evidence suggests a different story may be emerging, with the Russell 2000 significantly outperforming the Magnificent 7 over both quarterly and year-to-date periods. While large-cap technology remains influential, improving participation across a wider group of companies could point to a healthier and more broadly supported market environment.
Point & Figure charts are designed to focus on evidence rather than emotion, filtering out day-to-day volatility and highlighting meaningful shifts in supply and demand. Despite ongoing headline-driven uncertainty, both the NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 continue to trade in columns of X’s with strong relative strength characteristics, suggesting buyers may still hold the edge. Until key support levels are violated and a confirmed reversal emerges, the prevailing technical evidence continues to favor demand.
Point & Figure relative strength analysis provides a disciplined framework for identifying where market leadership is emerging by filtering out short-term price noise and focusing on meaningful trends. By following the progression of capital from broad market indexes to leading sectors and ultimately to individual stocks, investors can pinpoint the areas demonstrating the greatest relative strength. This top-down approach helps reveal developing opportunities before they become widely recognized by the broader market.
While investors remain focused on geopolitics, Federal Reserve policy, and artificial intelligence, a more consequential story may be developing beneath the surface. Japan’s gradual move away from ultra-loose monetary policy could reshape global capital flows, influencing Treasury yields, equity valuations, and the outlook for gold. As markets adjust to shifting liquidity conditions, the cost and availability of capital may become one of the most important drivers of portfolio returns in the months ahead.
The first half of 2026 was defined by a highly concentrated market environment, with AI-driven technology, industrial capital spending, and select commodities driving both sector and country leadership. At the same time, geopolitics, trade tensions, and shifting interest-rate expectations created sharp dispersion across regions and asset classes. For advisors, the key message is that returns were not broad-based, making understanding the underlying drivers of performance essential for client conversations and portfolio positioning.
As the AI buildout accelerates, market attention may increasingly shift from semiconductor supply toward the physical infrastructure required to deploy and energize large-scale data centers. Electrical contractors, utility infrastructure firms, and grid equipment manufacturers could provide important real-world signals regarding labor availability, project timing, backlog conversion, and installation capacity before those pressures become more broadly visible across the market. This framework is not intended as a directional call on AI demand, but rather as a practical benchmark that may help monitor whether execution capacity is keeping pace with the scale and speed of the infrastructure expansion.
Markets continue to broaden beneath the surface, but participation and leadership are not always the same thing. While small caps and selective commodities such as copper have begun to improve alongside the broader risk-on environment, longer-term relative leadership trends still appear more firmly concentrated within large-cap growth and technology. For advisors, the current environment may increasingly require distinguishing between areas that are simply participating in improving market conditions and those that could be establishing more durable leadership trends.
Oil continues to trade near historically elevated levels, with Point and Figure support beginning at the 3-box reversal level of $93.19 and extending through a broader support zone between $90.48 and $82.80. Well-established resistance remains at $111.27, with additional longer-term supply identified up to $118.05, a range that may prove important in determining whether crude can sustain its current momentum. While transport stocks continue to reflect resilient economic activity, the interaction between elevated energy prices and ongoing demand conditions may remain a key area of focus for advisors monitoring broader market trends.
The AI cycle may be observed as a progression through semiconductor leadership, system-level expansion, and global supply chain confirmation. Early signals may emerge through compute-focused equities, with participation potentially broadening into memory and infrastructure as adoption scales. Alignment across U.S., Korean, and Taiwanese markets may provide additional confirmation that AI-related demand is being transmitted across the full hardware ecosystem.
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