Market Volatility Surge: S&P, NASDAQ and Russell Struggle as Bond Declines and Equity Losses Weigh on Markets
It’s been another tough week in the markets, with the S&P 500 falling 3.06%, while the NASDAQ Composite Index suffered the largest drop, down 4.89%. The Russell 2000 Index, which is heavy in small- and mid-cap stocks, also took a hit, down 4.12%, as market participants began losing their risk appetite. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is still up 1.27%, but the NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 Index have now slipped into negative territory for the first time in 2025, with performance figures of -1.22% and -2.79%, respectively. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped 1.16%, giving back some of its year-to-date gains, which now stand at +2.43%. In the small- and mid-cap space, returns were negative for the S&P/TSX Smallcap and Midcap Indexes, down 1.62% and 1.65%, respectively, essentially wiping out the 2025 gains so far. The big story for the week was the sharp decline in bonds. The CBOE Interest Rates for the 5, 10, and 30-year bonds (FVX.I, TNX.I, TYX.I) all took a significant hit, dropping by -6.70%, -6.31%, and -5.41%, respectively. Volatility also surged, with the CBOE NASDAQ Volatility (VXN.I) increasing by 15.47%, and the CBOE SPX Volatility rising by 25.08%. The Bullish Percent readings also took a hit, with the SIA Market Equal Weight Index BP dropping 27.50%, and the SIA NASDAQ Equal Weight Index BP declining by 12.74%. On a global scale, China was a standout, with the Hong Kong ETF benchmark FLHK up 3.82%, while its mainland counterpart FLCH gained 3.25%. The only country ETF to outperform was Spain (EWP), which rose 3.95%. The big losers included Indonesia (EIDO), down 4.55%, Brazil (FLBR), down 3.23%, and the United States, down 3.05%. The rest of the list of losing countries was long, as the equity selloff became global.
Broad Correction: Sectors Struggle as Quarterly Gains Erode
From a market perspective, there’s really no place to hide as every sector, except for Leisure, Wholesale, and Tobacco, turned red. Losses ranged from -0.64% in SIA Utilities to a significant -10.73% for SIA Conglomerates, with many sectors flirting with double-digit corrections. This broad-based decline has also put pressure on the quarterly numbers, with almost every sector in the red, except for SIA Automotive and SIA Media, which are still positive at +5.66% and +0.52%, respectively. The sectors hardest hit include SIA Construction (-15.17%), SIA Conglomerates (-10.73%), SIA Manufacturing (-12.07%), SIA Transportation (-10.08%), and SIA Real Estate (-10.06%). Unfortunately, these losses have eroded the 1-year gains that had previously accumulated across these sectors. While the attached SIA market sector table ranks sectors by monthly performance, we've also included the SIA ranking on the far left so you can easily identify the top-ranked sectors. These may hold up better and still have pockets of strength, which the SIA platform is excellent at detecting.
S&P 500 Point and Figure Chart Holds: Finding Strength in Elite SIA-Selected Names
Turning to the S&P 500 Index, we've plotted a 2% scale point-and-figure chart to assess the situation. The chart reveals minimal destruction so far, with support at the 3-box reversal level of 5565.94, which also marks the latest double top. Should the sell-off continue, additional support can be found at 5142.07 and 4750.47. On the upside, resistance remains at 6521.38, based on the prior column of X highlighted by the red line. Notably, the SIA SMAX reading remains high at 9/10, suggesting that US equities may still offer the best opportunity among various asset classes. Although we noted above that there was "no place to hide," this statement doesn’t fully apply to the elite SIA practitioner. In fact, we've included the top (favored) zone of the SIA S&P 100 Index Report, where you’ll find monthly and quarterly performance numbers that far outpace broader sector or country indexes. Strong names like Netflix, T-Mobile, Bank of New York Mellon, Meta, IBM, and Goldman Sachs make up this list. These results stem from millions of relative strength calculations performed daily by the SIA platform, providing our advisors with a curated list of stronger names, as opposed to relying on a broad-stroke portfolio approach.
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