International Market Surge: Europe Leads Amid De-escalation Chatter in Ukraine

International equities have delivered impressive returns so far this year, with Europe—particularly Central and Eastern Europe—leading the way. Poland stands out with a remarkable 41% YTD gain, followed by Spain (28.9%), Germany (21.2%), Italy (18.7%), and Sweden (13.7%). This strength coincides with growing optimism around a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, which may be easing geopolitical risk premiums across the region. In Asia, results are more mixed. China Mainland is up 10.1%, while South Korea (8.3%), Japan (4.5%), and India (0.3%) posted more modest gains. Meanwhile, markets like Taiwan (-12.6%), Thailand (-12.8%), and Indonesia (-10.1%) have lagged significantly. The Americas also showed regional divergence. Mexico (21.5%), Brazil (17.4%), and Peru (11.0%) outperformed, while Canada (3.2%) and Argentina (4.6%) posted more muted returns. The United States, by contrast, is down 6.8% YTD, underlining the shift in global investor preference toward international exposure. Africa, too, delivered competitive gains, with South Africa (13.5%) and the broader Africa ETF (12.3%) both solidly in positive territory.

As highlighted in the attached report, China Mainland (FLCH) has posted a 10.05% YTD return, showing resilience despite the U.S.-China trade war. The saber-rattling has turned into real economic consequences, but China’s market continues to perform amid these tensions, with potentially long-term growth prospects despite ongoing challenges.In contrast, the United States (FLQL) is down -6.79% YTD. The trade war and tariffs have disrupted global supply chains and raised costs, with what was once political rhetoric now affecting the U.S. market and contributing to its underperformance.Canada (FLCA) is up 3.20% YTD, outperforming the U.S., despite being sandwiched between the U.S. and China in a challenging trade environment. With retaliatory measures from China and the impact of U.S. tariffs, Canada’s market has found some support, possibly driven by the world’s growing demand for its natural resources, including gold, copper, and natural gas, sectors that have been performing well.

Thirteen weeks ago, we highlighted early relative strength in Central Europe — particularly in Poland — as a region to watch. At the time, our Equity Leaders Weekly note focused on the improving relative performance of country-specific ETFs like EPOL (iShares MSCI Poland), backed by both geopolitical developments and key intermarket signals.That early leadership has now transitioned into a confirmed breakout. EPOL has moved decisively above the $24 level, surpassing a decades-old resistance zone. This is not a minor technical event. Breakouts of this magnitude can often reflect structural shifts in capital flows, and Poland’s continued strength suggests that institutional money may now be flowing into the region — validating the early relative strength signals we flagged well in advance of this move.At SIACharts, this is exactly the kind of market development our methodology is built to detect. By focusing on Point & Figure charts and relative strength rankings, elite advisors are equipped to identify leadership trends before they become consensus. The ability to spot rotation early — and act on it confidently — is what differentiates advisors using the SIA platform.If you're not already leveraging these tools in your practice, this is a timely reminder of what’s possible. We invite high-performing advisors looking to stay ahead of market moves to connect with us and explore how SIACharts can support a smarter, more proactive approach to portfolio management.