In 2024, the S&P 500 gained 23.31%, slightly behind 2023’s performance, while the S&P 100 and NASDAQ saw returns of 29.25% and 28.64%, respectively. Sector performance favored technology and financial services, with SIA Telecommunications and Computer Software posting significant gains. Heading into 2025, sectors like Computer Software and Aerospace show strong relative strength, while Metals and Mining, along with Energy, remain Unfavored.
As 2024 comes to a close, this analysis reviews the performance of key benchmarks, including the S&P/TSX Composite, Russell 2000, and other major indexes. Using SIA’s point-and-figure prowess, the document highlights significant trading ranges, support and resistance levels, and market trends, providing insights for advisors as they evaluate the market’s outlook for the year ahead.
2024 has been a strong year for equity markets, with major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ showing significant gains, while smaller cap stocks have caught up later in the year. Sector performance has been equally notable, with areas such as telecommunications and financial services delivering impressive returns, especially in the final quarter. Globally, South American markets have stood out, while China, supported by fiscal and monetary interventions, made a strong comeback in the latter part of the year, though India’s performance remained relatively subdued compared to other regions.
In light of recent geopolitical developments, including Trump’s threats of tariffs on BRICS nations and South Korea’s market instability following the declaration and lifting of martial law, the global investment landscape remains volatile. The SIA Heatmap analysis highlights Argentina’s strong performance, while South Korea’s market continues to struggle with poor relative strength. As tensions persist, the SIA platform provides valuable tools for identifying both risks and opportunities across international markets, with specific attention needed on regions such as China and Singapore.
The equity markets showed positive gains across US indices, with small and mid-cap stocks leading, particularly the Russell 2000, which rose 5.11%. SIA’s Sector Scope highlights sectors of opportunity, including banking, insurance, and finance, with strong relative strength, while retail, aerospace, and electronics and semiconductors are sectors of risk due to declining relative strength. The retail sector, combining low relative strength with a high bullish percent, signals potential vulnerability, emphasizing the importance of monitoring sectors for both opportunities and risks. This analysis is enhanced with the powerful SIA AI tools, which provide actionable insights for navigating market trends and optimizing portfolio decisions.
Bitcoin has shown remarkable performance, with a YTD gain of 108.84%, particularly standing out against gold since late 2023. Institutional adoption of Bitcoin is on the rise, reflected in the growing number of funds and ETFs dedicated to cryptocurrencies. As Bitcoin broke key resistance levels, it established support near $75,000, with technical indicators continuing to signal strength as the price approaches the psychological $100,000 level. The ongoing trend suggests that Bitcoin remains a significant player in the alternative asset space, gaining increasing attention from both advisors and institutions alike.
Yesterday was a great day for stock watchers, as substantial moves were in play, offering valuable insights. Much like a card player who inadvertently reveals their hand, the market exposed key information about potential next steps for both asset classes and sectors. If you asked 50 people what the big move was yesterday, many would point to the banks, but steelmakers and the auto industry also saw big moves, signaling potential opportunities for investors. In this Equity Leaders Weekly, we’ve built a custom steel manufacturing matrix to analyze the best stocks in this sector.
This week, we are focusing on bisecting the energy trade, starting with Exxon Mobil as a proxy for big oil, then examining Weatherford for the service industry, and identifying outperformers like Targa Resources and TC Energy Corp in the Pipeline and Infrastructure sector. Today, we will explore the Bullish Percent Index (BPI), which provides insights into money flows and serves as a key tool for elite investment advisors. Using bullish percents alongside technical analysis enhances our understanding of the market, much like recognizing shifts in bullish signals is essential for spotting opportunities—akin to timing a leap as a cliff diver in Hawaii.
The Bank of Canada’s governing council has lowered the benchmark policy rate by half a percentage point to 3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive cut since June. Despite this, bond prices are under pressure and have unexpectedly dropped to last place in the asset class rankings, suggesting that market rates could rise instead of decline. The recent breakout in precious metals prices further signals growing inflation risk, indicating that even traditional safe havens like bonds are struggling to maintain value.
This week, North American markets experienced modest gains, with the S&P 500 up 1.59% and the Russell 2000 gaining 3.42%. In contrast, consumer staples are lagging behind, as seen in the underperformance of the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Staples ETF, which posted a -0.81% return for the month. Meanwhile, discretionary stocks are thriving, with ETF proxies delivering monthly gains of 5-10%, indicating a prevailing risk-on sentiment among investors as they seek higher returns in the current market environment.
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